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Choose Your Own (Presidential) Adventure

2 distinct political futures lie ahead with very different job market landscapes

July 25, 2024

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  • 📈Trends & Data: US job postings down 12.4% YoY

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🇺🇸 Choose Your Own (Presidential) Adventure

As we approach the upcoming presidential election, the potential outcomes have significant implications for the job market and the future of job seekers. With President Biden officially dropping out of the race, the landscape is now more focused on the likely candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Here's a look at how each presidency could shape the job market:

The Job Market Landscape with Trump

Economic Policies and Job Creation:

  • Tax Cuts and Deregulation: Trump’s policies in his previous term focused on tax cuts and deregulation, particularly benefiting corporations. This approach could lead to increased business investments and potentially more job creation in the private sector.

  • Manufacturing and Trade Policies: Trump has emphasized bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and renegotiating trade deals. This might boost job opportunities in manufacturing and trade industries but could also lead to trade tensions affecting other sectors.

Immigration and Workforce:

  • Restrictive Immigration Policies: Trump’s stance on immigration could result in stricter policies, potentially reducing the labor supply in certain industries reliant on immigrant workers. This could lead to higher wages for domestic workers but might also create labor shortages.

  • H-1B Visa Program: Changes to the H-1B visa program could impact the tech industry significantly, affecting both the availability of skilled foreign workers and the competitiveness of U.S. companies.

Economic Uncertainty:

  • Market Volatility: Trump's policies, particularly on trade, have previously led to market volatility. This could create an uncertain economic environment, impacting job security and long-term career planning for job seekers.

The Job Market Landscape with Kamala Harris

Economic Policies and Job Creation:

  • Focus on Middle Class and Small Businesses: Harris is likely to promote policies aimed at strengthening the middle class and supporting small businesses. This could lead to more job opportunities at the grassroots level and in diverse industries.

  • Green Jobs and Infrastructure: Harris has been an advocate for environmental sustainability, which could translate into policies promoting green jobs and infrastructure projects, potentially creating millions of new jobs in renewable energy and related sectors.

Social Policies and Workforce:

  • Diversity and Inclusion: Harris is expected to push for more inclusive policies in the workplace, supporting diversity and equal opportunities. This could result in more initiatives aimed at closing the gender pay gap and increasing representation of minorities in various industries.

  • Support for Working Families: Policies such as paid family leave, affordable childcare, and healthcare reforms could significantly benefit working families, improving job retention and work-life balance for many job seekers.

Education and Training:

  • Investment in Education and Training: Harris has shown strong support for education and job training programs. Increased funding and focus on these areas could provide job seekers with more opportunities to upskill and reskill, adapting to the evolving job market.

To Wrap Up

November holds two starkly different visions for the future of the job market. Under Trump, we could see a continuation of policies favoring deregulation, corporate tax cuts, and restrictive immigration practices, potentially leading to a boost in certain industries but also increased economic uncertainty. Conversely, a Harris presidency might focus on middle-class growth, green jobs, diversity, and extensive support for education and training, fostering a more inclusive and sustainable job market.

Staying informed about these potential outcomes will help you make career decisions that will have some staying power.

US job postings down 12.4% YoY

The Q2 2024 B2B labor market report shows a mixed picture with overall job postings down 12.4% year-over-year, nearing pre-pandemic levels. Software development job postings have stabilized but remain 31.4% below pre-pandemic levels. Wage growth in B2B sectors is generally slowing, with software development being an exception, showing a 1.9% increase year-over-year.

Key Takeaways

  • Overall Job Postings: Down 12.4% from last year.

  • Software Development: Postings down 31.4% from pre-pandemic levels but wage growth is up 1.9%.

  • Sector Variability: Insurance and education job postings are increasing; production and manufacturing are declining.

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